Overseas media said that just when some of China's neighboring countries were trying to curb their expansionism, Duterte came.

The situation in the South China Sea has changed

An article titled "Duterte's tilt toward China could subvert U.S. strategy in Asia" published on the Bloomberg News website on September 15 stated that less than three months after taking office, the Philippine president began to curse U.S. President Obama and vowed to end cooperation with the U.S. military in combating terrorism and patrolling in the disputed South China Sea. He said he would take action to strengthen economic and defense ties with China and Russia.

The article stated that although Duterte is unpredictable (one day calling China "generous" and the next day threatening a "bloody" war if Beijing launches an attack), his behavior has undermined the United States' efforts to bring together countries from Japan to Vietnam to Australia to resist China's military assertiveness.

Duterte has repeatedly emphasized the need for the Philippines to pursue an "independent foreign policy" and expressed doubts about the willingness of the United States to intervene once China occupies territory in the South China Sea.

Zhang Bohui, director of the Asia-Pacific Studies Center at Lingnan University in Hong Kong, said: "Generally speaking, the situation in the South China Sea, and specifically the Sino-US competition, may become a turning point. Duterte's foreign policy may lead to a dramatic change in the regional geostrategic situation, putting China in an advantageous position when confronting the United States."

The article stated that one of the biggest benefits that China will gain is the possibility of reaching an agreement (with the Philippines) on the South China Sea.

While Duterte said he would respect the tribunal's ruling in The Hague, he said he was willing to negotiate with China, the country's largest trading partner, and he made no attempt to have the ruling mentioned in a communiqué issued at last week's ASEAN summit in Laos. Before taking office, he said he would consider setting aside territorial differences to let China build a railway for the Philippines.

May trigger a chain reaction

The U.S. Stars and Stripes website published a report on September 14 entitled "Philippines' change of attitude on troop garrison and patrol issues may disrupt U.S. strategy" stating that the U.S. strategy of confronting China in the South China Sea may now collapse because the newly elected leader of a key front-line country has stated that he will withdraw from military cooperation with the United States - including joint naval patrols.

Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte said this week that he wanted U.S. special forces to leave the southern Philippine islands.

The next day, Duterte said that the Philippine Navy and foreign troops would not be allowed to conduct joint patrols near the South China Sea.

Richard Javad Heydarian, a professor of political science at De La Salle University in the Philippines, said in a phone interview last week: "The Obama administration's containment strategy against China is falling apart due to the linkage effect caused by the changing attitudes of front-line countries like the Philippines."

He said: "They (US officials) hope to create enough diplomatic pressure on China to force China to abide by the rules. On this point, the United States may have differences with Duterte."

Duterte has stated that he is willing to consider bilateral consultations with China, but he has notPressure Beijing to comply with the ruling of the Hague tribunal.

Hydarian said that the Philippines' stance also weakened the determination of other maritime claimants.

Vietnam, which took inspiration from the Philippines, is now less assertive, and Singapore and Indonesia have also tempered their rhetoric, he said.

Heydarian said: "The United States has never drawn a red line (on the South China Sea issue). If the United States is unwilling to do that, why should small countries risk conflicts and lose huge investment opportunities and stand up to China?"

He said that many countries in Southeast Asia prefer Duterte's attitude.

He said: "Currently, only the United States, Japan and some other like-minded countries outside the region have talked about the issue of arbitration and the need to obey the results of the award."

The direction of Philippine diplomacy is elusive

Hong Kong's South China Morning Post website reported on September 14 that analysts said that Philippine President Duterte may have said that he wanted to purchase weapons from China, but he was only provoking China and the United States to fight each other instead of proposing a practical plan.

Hu Yishan, a senior researcher at the S. S. Rajaratnam Institute of International Studies in Singapore, said that Duterte’s expressed desire to purchase weapons from China cannot be clearly interpreted.

Hu Yishan said: "Duterte is instigating a fight between the United States and China in order to maximize the benefits for the Philippines."

He said: "I think what Duterte really wants to achieve is to reach an arms deal with the United States on better terms."

Wu Shicun, director of the China South China Sea Research Institute, said that Duterte is testing the United States and hopes to get greater benefits, especially military supplies, although what Duterte said is simply unrealistic.

Wu Shicun said that the mutual defense treaty between the United States and the Philippines is a legally binding document approved by the Philippine Supreme Court, and Duterte’s few words are unlikely to stop military contacts between the Philippines and the United States. The United States clearly wants to maintain or even enhance its geopolitical influence in the region.

China may not sell arms to the Philippines as Duterte expects due to a lack of mutual trust, he said.

A military observer said that the Philippines is neither courageous nor strong enough to break with the United States. Therefore, Duterte's statement that he wants to purchase weapons from China is just a show-off to please China and is not a realistic plan at all.

According to a report by Nihon Keizai Shimbun on September 15, Philippine President Duterte’s goal is to expand economic cooperation with China. China is using railway construction as "bait" to seek to resolve the South China Sea issue through bilateral negotiations.

However, Duterte does not mean to be groveling to China. In late August, regarding the issue of sovereignty in the South China Sea, Duterte said passionately at a military base: "If our territory is violated, we will shed blood and sacrifice. We will never surrender."

The foundation of Philippine diplomacy is coordination with Japan and the United States. Duterte once promised Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to attach importance to the arbitration tribunal's ruling and repeatedly emphasized its alliance with Western countries.

Where is Duterte’s diplomacy headed?

“I love the Philippines. "This is a sentence that Duterte must mention in his speech. Duterte's fundamental idea is to revive the motherland that has been manipulated by major powers. He is neither pro-American nor pro-China. Duterte is "pro-Philippines."